Daily Papers

Market manipulation now routinely originates from coordinated social media campaigns, not isolated trades. Retail investors, regulators, and brokerages need tools that connect online narratives and coordination patterns to market behavior. We present AIMM, an AI-driven framework that fuses Reddit activity, bot and coordination indicators, and OHLCV market features into a daily AIMM Manipulation Risk Score for each ticker. The system uses a parquet-native pipeline with a Streamlit dashboard that allows analysts to explore suspicious windows, inspect underlying posts and price action, and log model outputs over time. Due to Reddit API restrictions, we employ calibrated synthetic social features matching documented event characteristics; market data (OHLCV) uses real historical data from Yahoo Finance. This release makes three contributions. First, we build the AIMM Ground Truth dataset (AIMM-GT): 33 labeled ticker-days spanning eight equities, drawing from SEC enforcement actions, community-verified manipulation cases, and matched normal controls. Second, we implement forward-walk evaluation and prospective prediction logging for both retrospective and deployment-style assessment. Third, we analyze lead times and show that AIMM flagged GME 22 days before the January 2021 squeeze peak. The current labeled set is small (33 ticker-days, 3 positive events), but results show preliminary discriminative capability and early warnings for the GME incident. We release the code, dataset schema, and dashboard design to support research on social media-driven market surveillance.

Social media influence campaigns pose significant challenges to public discourse and democracy. Traditional detection methods fall short due to the complexity and dynamic nature of social media. Addressing this, we propose a novel detection method using Large Language Models (LLMs) that incorporates both user metadata and network structures. By converting these elements into a text format, our approach effectively processes multilingual content and adapts to the shifting tactics of malicious campaign actors. We validate our model through rigorous testing on multiple datasets, showcasing its superior performance in identifying influence efforts. This research not only offers a powerful tool for detecting campaigns, but also sets the stage for future enhancements to keep up with the fast-paced evolution of social media-based influence tactics.

The behavior and decision making of groups or communities can be dramatically influenced by individuals pushing particular agendas, e.g., to promote or disparage a person or an activity, to call for action, etc.. In the examination of online influence campaigns, particularly those related to important political and social events, scholars often concentrate on identifying the sources responsible for setting and controlling the agenda (e.g., public media). In this article we present a methodology for detecting specific instances of agenda control through social media where annotated data is limited or non-existent. By using a modest corpus of Twitter messages centered on the 2022 French Presidential Elections, we carry out a comprehensive evaluation of various approaches and techniques that can be applied to this problem. Our findings demonstrate that by treating the task as a textual entailment problem, it is possible to overcome the requirement for a large annotated training dataset.

Disinformation on social media poses both societal and technical challenges. While previous studies have integrated textual information into propagation networks, they have yet to fully leverage the advancements in Transformer-based language models for high-quality contextual text representations. This work investigates the impact of incorporating textual features into Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for fake news detection. Our experiments demonstrate that contextual representations improve performance by 9.3% in Macro F1 over static ones and 33.8% over GNNs without textual features. However, noisy data augmentation degrades performance and increases instability. We expect our methodology to open avenues for further research, and all code is made publicly available.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly shaping how information is created and disseminated, from companies using them to craft persuasive advertisements, to election campaigns optimizing messaging to gain votes, to social media influencers boosting engagement. These settings are inherently competitive, with sellers, candidates, and influencers vying for audience approval, yet it remains poorly understood how competitive feedback loops influence LLM behavior. We show that optimizing LLMs for competitive success can inadvertently drive misalignment. Using simulated environments across these scenarios, we find that, 6.3% increase in sales is accompanied by a 14.0% rise in deceptive marketing; in elections, a 4.9% gain in vote share coincides with 22.3% more disinformation and 12.5% more populist rhetoric; and on social media, a 7.5% engagement boost comes with 188.6% more disinformation and a 16.3% increase in promotion of harmful behaviors. We call this phenomenon Moloch's Bargain for AI--competitive success achieved at the cost of alignment. These misaligned behaviors emerge even when models are explicitly instructed to remain truthful and grounded, revealing the fragility of current alignment safeguards. Our findings highlight how market-driven optimization pressures can systematically erode alignment, creating a race to the bottom, and suggest that safe deployment of AI systems will require stronger governance and carefully designed incentives to prevent competitive dynamics from undermining societal trust.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved unprecedented capabilities in generating human-like text, posing subtle yet significant challenges for information integrity across critical domains, including education, social media, and academia, enabling sophisticated misinformation campaigns, compromising healthcare guidance, and facilitating targeted propaganda. This challenge becomes severe, particularly in under-explored and low-resource languages like Arabic. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation of Arabic machine-generated text, examining multiple generation strategies (generation from the title only, content-aware generation, and text refinement) across diverse model architectures (ALLaM, Jais, Llama, and GPT-4) in academic, and social media domains. Our stylometric analysis reveals distinctive linguistic patterns differentiating human-written from machine-generated Arabic text across these varied contexts. Despite their human-like qualities, we demonstrate that LLMs produce detectable signatures in their Arabic outputs, with domain-specific characteristics that vary significantly between different contexts. Based on these insights, we developed BERT-based detection models that achieved exceptional performance in formal contexts (up to 99.9\% F1-score) with strong precision across model architectures. Our cross-domain analysis confirms generalization challenges previously reported in the literature. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the most comprehensive investigation of Arabic machine-generated text to date, uniquely combining multiple prompt generation methods, diverse model architectures, and in-depth stylometric analysis across varied textual domains, establishing a foundation for developing robust, linguistically-informed detection systems essential for preserving information integrity in Arabic-language contexts.

This study investigates the automated classification of Calls to Action (CTAs) within the 2021 German Instagram election campaign to advance the understanding of mobilization in social media contexts. We analyzed over 2,208 Instagram stories and 712 posts using fine-tuned BERT models and OpenAI's GPT-4 models. The fine-tuned BERT model incorporating synthetic training data achieved a macro F1 score of 0.93, demonstrating a robust classification performance. Our analysis revealed that 49.58% of Instagram posts and 10.64% of stories contained CTAs, highlighting significant differences in mobilization strategies between these content types. Additionally, we found that FDP and the Greens had the highest prevalence of CTAs in posts, whereas CDU and CSU led in story CTAs.

Persuasion plays a pivotal role in a wide range of applications from health intervention to the promotion of social good. Persuasive chatbots can accelerate the positive effects of persuasion in such applications. Existing methods rely on fine-tuning persuasive chatbots with task-specific training data which is costly, if not infeasible, to collect. To address this issue, we propose a method to leverage the generalizability and inherent persuasive abilities of large language models (LLMs) in creating effective and truthful persuasive chatbot for any given domain in a zero-shot manner. Unlike previous studies which used pre-defined persuasion strategies, our method first uses an LLM to generate responses, then extracts the strategies used on the fly, and replaces any unsubstantiated claims in the response with retrieved facts supporting the strategies. We applied our chatbot, PersuaBot, to three significantly different domains needing persuasion skills: donation solicitation, recommendations, and health intervention. Our experiments on simulated and human conversations show that our zero-shot approach is more persuasive than prior work, while achieving factual accuracy surpassing state-of-the-art knowledge-oriented chatbots. Our study demonstrated that when persuasive chatbots are employed responsibly for social good, it is an enabler of positive individual and social change.

In this paper, we introduce the first release of a large-scale dataset capturing discourse on X (a.k.a., Twitter) related to the upcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Our dataset comprises 22 million publicly available posts on X.com, collected from May 1, 2024, to July 31, 2024, using a custom-built scraper, which we describe in detail. By employing targeted keywords linked to key political figures, events, and emerging issues, we aligned data collection with the election cycle to capture evolving public sentiment and the dynamics of political engagement on social media. This dataset offers researchers a robust foundation to investigate critical questions about the influence of social media in shaping political discourse, the propagation of election-related narratives, and the spread of misinformation. We also present a preliminary analysis that highlights prominent hashtags and keywords within the dataset, offering initial insights into the dominant themes and conversations occurring in the lead-up to the election. Our dataset is available at: url{https://github.com/sinking8/usc-x-24-us-election

Online social media platforms are central to everyday communication and information seeking. While these platforms serve positive purposes, they also provide fertile ground for the spread of hate speech, offensive language, and bullying content targeting individuals, organizations, and communities. Such content undermines safety, participation, and equity online. Reliable detection systems are therefore needed, especially for low-resource languages where moderation tools are limited. In Bangla, prior work has contributed resources and models, but most are single-task (e.g., binary hate/offense) with limited coverage of multi-facet signals (type, severity, target). We address these gaps by introducing the first multi-task Bangla hate-speech dataset, BanglaMultiHate, one of the largest manually annotated corpus to date. Building on this resource, we conduct a comprehensive, controlled comparison spanning classical baselines, monolingual pretrained models, and LLMs under zero-shot prompting and LoRA fine-tuning. Our experiments assess LLM adaptability in a low-resource setting and reveal a consistent trend: although LoRA-tuned LLMs are competitive with BanglaBERT, culturally and linguistically grounded pretraining remains critical for robust performance. Together, our dataset and findings establish a stronger benchmark for developing culturally aligned moderation tools in low-resource contexts. For reproducibility, we will release the dataset and all related scripts.

Two commonly-employed strategies to combat the rise of misinformation on social media are (i) fact-checking by professional organisations and (ii) community moderation by platform users. Policy changes by Twitter/X and, more recently, Meta, signal a shift away from partnerships with fact-checking organisations and towards an increased reliance on crowdsourced community notes. However, the extent and nature of dependencies between fact-checking and helpful community notes remain unclear. To address these questions, we use language models to annotate a large corpus of Twitter/X community notes with attributes such as topic, cited sources, and whether they refute claims tied to broader misinformation narratives. Our analysis reveals that community notes cite fact-checking sources up to five times more than previously reported. Fact-checking is especially crucial for notes on posts linked to broader narratives, which are twice as likely to reference fact-checking sources compared to other sources. In conclusion, our results show that successful community moderation heavily relies on professional fact-checking.

LLMs are increasingly being used in workflows involving generating content to be consumed by humans (e.g., marketing) and also in directly interacting with humans (e.g., through chatbots). The development of such systems that are capable of generating verifiably persuasive messages presents both opportunities and challenges for society. On the one hand, such systems could positively impact domains like advertising and social good, such as addressing drug addiction, and on the other, they could be misused for spreading misinformation and shaping political opinions. To channel LLMs' impact on society, we need to develop systems to measure and benchmark their persuasiveness. With this motivation, we introduce PersuasionBench and PersuasionArena, the first large-scale benchmark and arena containing a battery of tasks to measure the persuasion ability of generative models automatically. We investigate to what extent LLMs know and leverage linguistic patterns that can help them generate more persuasive language. Our findings indicate that the persuasiveness of LLMs correlates positively with model size, but smaller models can also be made to have a higher persuasiveness than much larger models. Notably, targeted training using synthetic and natural datasets significantly enhances smaller models' persuasive capabilities, challenging scale-dependent assumptions. Our findings carry key implications for both model developers and policymakers. For instance, while the EU AI Act and California's SB-1047 aim to regulate AI models based on the number of floating point operations, we demonstrate that simple metrics like this alone fail to capture the full scope of AI's societal impact. We invite the community to explore and contribute to PersuasionArena and PersuasionBench, available at https://bit.ly/measure-persuasion, to advance our understanding of AI-driven persuasion and its societal implications.

Intelligent agents powered by large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive capabilities and gained increasing popularity on social media platforms. While LLM agents are reshaping the ecology of social media, there exists a current gap in conducting a comprehensive evaluation of their ability to comprehend media content, understand user behaviors, and make intricate decisions. To address this challenge, we introduce SoMe, a pioneering benchmark designed to evaluate social media agents equipped with various agent tools for accessing and analyzing social media data. SoMe comprises a diverse collection of 8 social media agent tasks, 9,164,284 posts, 6,591 user profiles, and 25,686 reports from various social media platforms and external websites, with 17,869 meticulously annotated task queries. Compared with the existing datasets and benchmarks for social media tasks, SoMe is the first to provide a versatile and realistic platform for LLM-based social media agents to handle diverse social media tasks. By extensive quantitative and qualitative analysis, we provide the first overview insight into the performance of mainstream agentic LLMs in realistic social media environments and identify several limitations. Our evaluation reveals that both the current closed-source and open-source LLMs cannot handle social media agent tasks satisfactorily. SoMe provides a challenging yet meaningful testbed for future social media agents. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/LivXue/SoMe

Estimating the political leanings of social media users is a challenging and ever more pressing problem given the increase in social media consumption. We introduce Retweet-BERT, a simple and scalable model to estimate the political leanings of Twitter users. Retweet-BERT leverages the retweet network structure and the language used in users' profile descriptions. Our assumptions stem from patterns of networks and linguistics homophily among people who share similar ideologies. Retweet-BERT demonstrates competitive performance against other state-of-the-art baselines, achieving 96%-97% macro-F1 on two recent Twitter datasets (a COVID-19 dataset and a 2020 United States presidential elections dataset). We also perform manual validation to validate the performance of Retweet-BERT on users not in the training data. Finally, in a case study of COVID-19, we illustrate the presence of political echo chambers on Twitter and show that it exists primarily among right-leaning users. Our code is open-sourced and our data is publicly available.